The Early Look

The Early Look: Cliff Still In Focus

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The Early Look

Hereâ??s a brief look at the pre-market action for Nov 30, 2012 @ 05:28 AM

A raft of somewhat conflicting headlines this morning.

Early last evening, after the latest “posing” by congressional leaders, U.S. stock futures took a somewhat significant dip, with the S&P falling about 6 points from the prior day’s close.

Then, the talk shows were rife with players from both sides criticizing the initial fiscal cliff proposals of the other side. Newt Gingrich was particularly visible, even though he does not have much of a power base now. In any event, from what we have been reading, both sides welcome Geithner’s direct participation and this thing is just going to drag on here for a while with the market reacting to every new negotiating comment.

Since then, futures have improved substantially, with some global headlines taking over.

On the plus side, Japan announced a new round of stimulus and BTE industrial production figures. Asian markets were generally higher across the board, with the region up +0.4% on average. Even China’s markets broke their losing streak. India, however, reported a slowing GDP.

Also on the plus side, German lawmakers appear to have approved the terms of the latest Greece bailout. On the negative side, some European data points not particularly good: unemployment in Europe hits new record, French consumer spending down, and German retail sales down. Draghi out with comments, saying in effect that things have stabilized but much work to do and does not expect economic turnaround until second half 2013. Europe trading up about +0.3%, in a somewhat counterintuitive move, but hard to say how much of that is more a nod to the U.S. expectations for today. The data certainly does not support the move up.

U.S. futures are up about 2-3 on a fair value basis on the S&P, but about 8 points higher than overnight lows. Despite some good data yesterday, retailers did not fare well off November sales numbers.

Consumer spending data before the bell and then Chicago PMI at 945 am est today. It is very hard to predict how markets will try and close out today into the weekend and things are trading just above the open of the month of November, if you can believe that after all the relative volatility this month.

Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell…

Major Foreign Markets:

  • Shanghai: +0.84%
  • Hong Kong: +0.49%
  • Japan: +0.48%
  • France: +0.31%
  • Germany: +0.41%
  • Italy: +0.09%
  • Spain: -0.31%
  • London: +0.18%

Crude Oil Futures: -$0.01 to $88.06

Gold: +$2.80 to $1732.30

Dollar: lower against the yen, euro and pound

10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 1.621%

Stock Futures Ahead of Open in U.S. (relative to fair value):

  • S&P 500: +4.25
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +38
  • NASDAQ Composite: +7.77

Good Trading!
David Wismer

David Wâ??s Daily Decision PLUS. service is designed to be an â??add onâ? to the Daily Decision service and produce income via a proprietary trading strategy. Check it out today!

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About the Author

David Wismer covers market news and provides editorial content for Forbes and Stateofthemarkets.com. His professional career has taken him to Madison Avenue, Wall Street, Silicon Alley, Hollywood, Washington, and all across the NYC sports and media scene. David specializes in digging into what is being said by newsmakers, the media, and the “hot news,” and aims to connect the dots to help investors make sense of the markets.